March 5 2020
Q: In case Coronavirus reaches our region what meds and equipment do you think we should have to help anyone who catches it?
A: Use common sense. No need to stock specific medications or equipment. The information aired about this virus and epidemic is full of nonsense. The mortality rates are calculated as percentage of confirmed cases, which is incorrect. They should take into account that 90 + % of people who get infected experience no symptoms or mild symptoms. Most of these never reports it or go to a doctor.
The true number of infected people exceeds millions in China alone. There are 100s of corono and other viruses, which circulate year around. Coronovises are responsible for 30% of infections during “flu season” and 10-15% in between.
Also, we lose up to 80000 people to flu in the USA.
Q: The only thing that possibly contradicts what you’re saying is that Italy only got it a few weeks ago, had 3000 known cases in that time and over 3% death rate. I suppose one could argue that more than 3000 but it was a very short time period.
A: During flu epidemics the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage (total absence of symptoms) is as high as 35.5% and subclinical cases (illness that did not meet the criteria for acute respiratory or influenza-like illness) up to 61.8%. Therefore, by extrapolating what we know about flu and other infections, if 3000 are diagnosed with Coronavirius infection (e.g.) symptomatic, these three groups represent 100% of infected. Therefore, 3000 cases represent 3% of total cases = symptomatic + asymptomatic + subclinical cases. Consequently, mortality will be 0.3%, not 3%. Out of symptomatic people, the vast majority – 97% in accordance with official estimate recover and many of these have very mild form of the disease.
The risk, as with any other infection, is higher in people with preexisting conditions, elderly, and those who do not have timely access to care. For instance, Washington state reported 10 deaths. Most were residents of Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland, a suburb east of Seattle. No further comment…
There is epidemiological term called R0 (R0), which is the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and not vaccinated. Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
1. If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than 1 new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually disappear.
2. If R0 equals 1, the disease will stay alive, but there won’t be an epidemic.
3. If R0 is greater than 1, cases could grow exponentially and cause an epidemic or even a pandemic.
From what we currently know, the calculated R0 value for 2019-nCoV is greater than 1 (this is obvious, because infection is spreading!). A preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4–2.5 was presented in WHO’s statement regarding the outbreak of 2019-nCoV. Fortunately, a main trend is that the estimated R0 value for 2019-nCoV is getting reduced as case information accumulates. And with the control measures implemented, the effective reproduction number (R0) has been shown to drop to 2.08 (1.99–2.18).
Influenza’s R0 is usually less than 2, but hits 2-4 during pandemics.
In comparison, R0 of measles is between 12-18. Before measles vaccination, a child could infect 15 children in one classroom. Those 15 classmates could then each infect 15 schoolmates. Measles spreads fast. To avoid measles spreading, 83-95% need to be vaccinated.
Ebola's n R0 is 1.2-2.0. Smallpox was eradicated with an R0 of which required 8 in 10 to be immune. Pertussis (whooping cough) has a high R0: 15-17. Untreated tuberculosis' R0=10.
I hope this helps@