April 4 2020
Q: What do you think of this: People testing positive for virus antibodies who didn’t even know they had it?
A: This is absolutely normal. One does not have to be sick to develop antibodies – exposure is enough!
Q: More evidence that this is more widespread than people think? By the way, as crazy as this all is, I don’t think it will get better until our government sees an effective treatment, a vaccine, or a downward skip of infections. It’s become a huge emotional issue and we are wrecking our economy over this as people have become irrational. When do you think one of those three things happen?
A: It is expected that infection will circulate and most of us will be exposed with zero long-term consequences to our health. But, we will develop a “herd immunity” which will eventually stop the epidemic.
Re: treatment – there will be NO effective treatment anytime soon, just as there is no effective treatment for influenza. For instance, this is what Uptodate.com tells us:
When initiated promptly, antiviral therapy with a neuraminidase inhibitor or baloxavir can shorten the duration of influenza symptoms by approximately one half to three days; in most studies, the benefit has been greatest when given within the first 24 to 30 hours and in patients with fever at presentation. Most trials of oseltamivir in ambulatory patients have been limited to patients presenting within 48 hours of symptom onset. The prevailing impression has been that there is little or no benefit when treatment is initiated two days or more after the onset of uncomplicated influenza. However, a patient survey found that only 13 percent of patients called their clinician within 48 hours of the onset of influenza-like symptoms.
Some studies have suggested that antiviral therapy reduces the severity and incidence of complications of influenza, the length of stay in those hospitalized for influenza including older adults, and influenza-associated mortality. However, other studies of immunocompetent patients have not shown a reduction in complications of influenza among patients who received antiviral therapy.
There is evidence that antiviral therapy is underutilized in patients at high risk for complications of influenza. In a study encompassing five influenza seasons, 15,972 outpatients with an acute respiratory illness and at increased risk for influenza complications were identified; 3196 (20 percent) had laboratory-confirmed influenza, and, of these, 1292 (40 percent) presented to care within two days of symptom onset. Of these 1292 patients, only 472 (37 percent) were prescribed an antiviral agent. Earlier presentation was associated with antiviral treatment (odds ratio [OR] 4.1, 95% CI 3.5-4.8), as was fever (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.7-3.8), although 25 percent of high-risk outpatients with influenza infection were afebrile. Empiric treatment of four high-risk outpatients with acute respiratory illness was needed to treat one patient with influenza infection.
Re: vaccine – the issues are the same. Here is from Uptodate.com:
Estimated effectiveness during the 2019-2020 season — Based on data from over 4000 children and adults with acute respiratory illness, vaccine effectiveness against influenza was estimated at 45 percent in the United States for the 2019 to 2020 season; 37 percent of patients who tested positive for influenza virus had been vaccinated compared with 55 percent of those who tested negative. This estimate was comparable with prior effectiveness rates during seasons when vaccines were well matched with circulating viruses.
Influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in the United States is available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for influenza seasons since 2005.
Conclusion: at least when it comes to influenza (and coronaviruses are similar in terms of high variability and rate of mutations), vaccination is worse then a coin-toss.
Further, as of today, we do not have vaccine for HIV, despite ongoing pandemic since 1980, hepatitis C, malaria (Bill Gates’s project) and most other infections. Here is the list of vaccines available in the USA as of today. All vaccines – without exception – were developed many years ago. One of the main conditions for having a vaccine which truly protects is stability of viral genome!
What we need to do is to stop engaging into wishful thinking and go on with our lives ASAP. Start with yourself. I realize that it is difficult because of hysteria amongst politicians, which is fanned by media. We are suffering from mass psychosis caused by infodemic, not the virus.
I trust that realism and science will prevail and everyone goes to work on May 1st. By the way, May 1st is the International Workers Day celebrated in most countries around the world.
If you heard Trump today and before, he keeps repeating that we must open the country. Also, in a stunning reversal to proclamations just a few days ago, both the POTUS and doctors around him absolutely refused to air their death toll projections today, instead saying that “it will be painful”. I think they realized that even if the number of deaths through the end of April will be increasing by 1,000 daily (current pace), it will fall far short of their doomsday projections.
I hope Trump will have political will to end this madness on April 30th.