July 5 2020
A memento mori (Latin 'remember that you [have to] die') is an artistic or symbolic reminder of the inevitability of death.
CDC reports that as of July 4th, there were 2,784,452 cases of COVID-19 resulting in 129,393 deaths. Sounds scary? Let’s dig into this using CDC's data and recently published studies.
CDC published the report Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 and subtitle Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), current as of July 1st of 2020. Here are the highlights.
The weekly number of deaths exceeded the expected number of deaths from the week ending March 28th to the week ending June 13th. It is not the first time this happened: the expected number of deaths exceeded the expected for six weeks between mid-December of 2017 and the end of January of 2018.
2. The weekly counts of deaths by age groups reveal NO excess deaths in the group younger than 25 y.o., a slight increase in the group between 24-44 y.o., and predictably bigger increases starting from the age of 45. Interestingly, the counts dropped below average by week 25 in all age groups.
3. The weekly counts of death by select causes: respiratory diseases (including COVID-19), circulatory diseases (heart disease and stroke), malignant neoplasms (cancers), Alzheimer's disease, and other types of dementia) and “other” causes demonstrate something very interesting. The respiratory diseases barely exceeded the expected at the end of March-April, while circulatory diseases had a much higher spike. This is not mentioning the fact, that circulatory diseases remain the most frequent cause of death, exceeding respiratory diseases by a factor of four! The mortality from malignant neoplasms is 1/2 of circulatory disease mortality, while dementia and all “other” causes are at par with respiratory diseases.
4. The change in a weekly number of deaths in subcategories demonstrates above-average numbers in:
influenza and pneumonia, including COVID-19;
hypertensive diseases;
ischemic heart disease;
Dementias;
Diabetes.
Dementias are the most common cause of death, followed by heart disease, hypertension, and diabetes. The rest of the categories are average or just above average.
5. The total number of deaths above average since February 1st of 2020 by cause of death reveals:
16,085 excess deaths from dementia;
9,000 excess deaths from hypertension;
6,130 excess deaths from ischemic heart disease;
5,361 excess deaths from diabetes;
3,927 excess deaths from strokes;
2,934 excess deaths from influenza and pneumonia;
2,294 excess deaths from heart failure;
1,945 excess deaths from malignant neoplasms;
1,467 excess deaths from “other respiratory diseases”;
549 excess deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease;
523 excess deaths from renal failure;
283 excess deaths from sepsis;
272 excess deaths from “other diseases of the respiratory system.
6. The total number of deaths above average by jurisdiction/cause reconfirm that only a small proportion of excess deaths are from influenza and pneumonia.
The bottom line: the majority of excess deaths since February 1st of 2020 were due to causes other than COVID-19! This is confirmed in other studies published recently:
In a JAMA research letter, Woolf et al estimated 87 001 excess deaths between March 1 and April 25, 2020, representing 17% of all observed US deaths during these 8 weeks. The authors attributed 65% of these excess deaths to COVID-19;
In a JAMA Internal Medicine study, Weinberger and colleagues reported 122 300 excess deaths between March 1 and May 30, 2020, representing 16% of all observed US deaths during this 3-month period. The authors noted that 78% of these excess deaths had been officially attributed to COVID-19.
I am not sure where these authors got information that 87,000 or 122300 excess deaths occurred. The CDC data indicated 51,293 excess deaths.
It is also not clear how authors came up with the estimate that 65% to 78% of these deaths are from COVID-19. A simple calculation based on CDC data indicates that 48,359 excess deaths occurred from causes other than influenza and pneumonia, which totaled 2,934. This is 17.48% of all excess deaths!
Here is the CDC data.:
Hypertension, heart disease, heart failure, and strokes - 21,351 (think older people, including those in nursing homes);
Dementia - 16,085 (think nursing homes);
Diabetes - 5,361;
Respiratory diseases - 4,950, including 2,934 from influenza and pneumonia (including COVID-19);
Cancers - 1,945;
Renal failure - 523;
Sepsis -283.
Conclusions:
The 82.5% of excess deaths occurred for reasons other than influenza and pneumonia';
Rephrasing: more than 1 out of 5 people died from “other” causes such as circulatory diseases, dementia, diabetes, cancers, etc. This is attributed, without doubt, to delays in seeking and providing care;
It is very possible that many of these souls had a virus detected, which means they died “with the virus”, not “from the virus”;
The most disappointing conclusion is that we are treated like fools who cannot read or comprehend CDC data and therefore can be manipulated into “isolation” and other punishments, such as mask-wearing while thanking the government for saving us from the scariest infection since the bubonic plague. FAKE NEWS!