May 8 2020
Q: Cuomo (Dr. Why: the governor of New York State) explained that 66% of the new cases are coming from people that are self-isolating at home. Not sure how to interpret?
A: This can mean one of the two:
People get infected going to a store or work and then it spreads in a household; or
Virus was already in a household before lockdown
#1 is more likely because of incubation period.
Also, Cuomo is not been clear: does this mean people who got infected observed lockdown 100% - never went outside? Why then it took 2 months for these people to get sick? Or, more likely, their comorbid conditions got out of control due to lack of physician oversight, running out of medicine, developing depression, lack of fresh air, and lack of exercise, while still eating same portions?
Regardless, I took this as good news: it means that virus is ubiquitous and people can be asymptomatic carriers until they get weak and allow it to reactivate. It also means that lockdown is useless and harmful.
Based on German data, if one out of four members of household gets sick, there is 15% change others get sick. In two member households, for instance husband and wife, the probability increases to 28%. This demonstrates two things:
The virus is not that vicious, as it is portrayed, and/or
The immune system can fight it off despite having a sick person live or even sleep with you.