April 13 2020
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain
The Pandemic Severity Index footnote (see April 11th blog titled Plan To End The Madness) indicates that calculation of Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) assumes 30% illness rate, e.g. the denominator for CFR is 30% of the entire country’s population.
Primer:
USA population - 330 million
30% of USA population - 99.3 million (presumed number of ill)
COVID-19 cases as of April 12th 2020 - 560,433
COVID-19 deaths as of April 12th 2020 - 22,115
Case Fatality Ratio, as presented to public = COVID-19 deaths/COVID-19 cases x 100% = 3.95%
Case Fatality Ratio, actual = COVID-19 deaths/30% of USA population x 100% = 0.022%
Conclusion: we are dealing with Pandemic Category 1 based on two TRUE statements:
Case Fatality Ratio <0.1% - TRUE
Projected number of deaths <90,000 - TRUE
Morals of the story: government’s actions are based on misclassification of this pandemic as Category 5 based on FAULTY (false, wrong, incorrect, mistaken) CFR calculation and FAULTY (false, wrong, incorrect, mistaken) projected number of deaths.
The table below illustrates the point.
COVID-19 Case Fatality Ratio for Select Countries as of April 12th 2020
Notes:
Included: top 10 counties ranked by a number of diagnosed cases;
Highlighted in red: countries which broke CFR threshold of 0.1% and therefore can legitimately claim Category 2 Pandemic;
Belarus, Brazil, Sweden and Turkey did not impose nationwide lockdowns, although Turkey instituted certain restrictions for 48-hour period from 9:00 pm on April 10th to 9:00 pm on April 12th;
South Korea is included because it is widely recognized as a positive example in handling the epidemic;
Scandinavian countries: Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland are known for their high standards of living, highly developed and well financed universal healthcare systems, discipline of the population and high degree of trust in government, but they did not act in unison during this pandemic:
The Sweden’s CFR is x 2 of Denmark;
Sweden did not institute any strict measures, instead focusing on preserving economy and emphasizing “herd immunity”;
Denmark was the first one in Europe to close borders and institute harsh lockdown rules;
Norway allowed cafes/restaurants to stay open, as long as patrons stay 1 meter apart;
On the 6th of April, the Norwegian Health Minister announced that the outbreak was "under control" and that the reproduction rate of Sars-CoV-2 had dwindled to 0.7 in the country. The country is relaxing restrictions starting Monday, April 13th.