April 12 2020
Italian National Statistics Institute (Istat – Istituto nazionale di statistica) released mortality data for the first 3 months of 2020 alongside mortality data for the 1st quarters for 2015-2019.
Istat produces and disseminates mortality statistics on the basis of different sources, each with its own peculiarities and purposes. The demographic statistics relating to deaths, data are produced and disseminated both from a civil status source and from a registry source, on a monthly and annual basis.
The deaths from a registry source refer to the population registered in the Registry, that is to the "resident population", regardless of where the death occurred (Italy or abroad). The deaths of a civil status source refer instead to the 'present population', therefore to the deaths in Italy of any Italian or foreign citizen. The cause mortality statistics derive from the "Survey on deaths and causes of death" and are based on the certifications of causes of death made by doctors.
It is specified that the data made available do not concern a sample of municipalities, but a selection of the latter (equal to 1,450, after the weekly update) made on the basis of an assessment of the completeness and timeliness of the information collected.
Mortality in Italy 2015-2020
Italy Death Rate per 1,000 population 2015-2020
Data Source: United Nations - World Population Prospects
Observations:
Mortality for the 1st quarter of 2020 is up 26% comparing with 2019, but only 13% higher than in 2015;
Female mortality was consistently higher than male mortality;
The total number of deaths in Italy is estimated 600,000 per year, therefore available data represent less than 50% of total;
The death rate per 1,000 population steadily increased during 2015-2020;
The annual % change jumped from 0.68% in 2018 to 0.88% in 2019 but dropped to 0.87% as of today;
We will have to wait at least a year until complete mortality statistics is available in order to understand the true impact of COVID-19.