Mar 24 2020
The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Italy was up today from 601 to 743. This is a reversal from the drop in number of deaths in 2 previous consecutive days from 793 to 651 on March 22nd and then to 601 on March 23rd.
Does this mean that the trend reversed? Not necessarily. Here are a few facts:
First and foremost, the number of new cases in Italy is still down from its peak of approximately 6,500 to 5,200 today;
The percentage of new deaths in Lombardia remained stable in the last 3 days: 55%, 53% and 54% respectively, comparing with 49% to 69% last week;
The percentage of deaths in the rest of Italy was also stable: 45%, 47% and 46%' respectively, comparing with 31% to 39% last week (with exception of March 19th when it was 51%);
By contrast, Lombardy contributed as many as 88% of deaths at the epidemics onset;
Therefore, the increased in number of deaths was significantly due to growth in the rest of Italy vs Lombardy;
Lombardy contributed more deaths than the rest of Italy since the beginning of epidemics: approximately 4,200 out of 6,800;
This is important for the USA, where there is a disproportional contribution of New York, California and Washington state at this time. We shall expect more cases in other states until they reach parity with the worst affected as of today, although the rest of the country would likely never match the first three states in total cases and fatalities.